GBP/USD, September 3, 8am UK Time
It’s September NFP day and volume is down. That’s probably saying it all.We are in a pretty congested area around 1.5425 and so far Cable is reluctant to push higher making risk reward calculations difficult. If I don’t see more action, I will hold off until NFP or, alternatively, don’t take a trade at all.
GBP/USD, September 3, 8am UK Time
GBP/USD September 2, 8am UK Time
We are stuck in a range from 1.5583 – 1.5327 flanked by significant, long term fib levels. We saw a news driven burst up yesterday to the well known 1.5480 level with bulls losing control again. Cable slowly re-traced during Asia. We saw a typical Cable pattern into London open. Two short bursts up forming a double top usually followed by a stronger 50-70 pip down move. The latter is the one I am betting on for today’s open. The problem is that USD and the GBP are weak, making this a bit tricky to trade. As posted on twitter, we need to see a clear break below 1.5390 to see lower cable levels.
GBP/USD, September 2, 8am UK Time
I started doing a lot of research on topics related to trading. Greg from http://www.youtube.com/user/SCOPELABS was talking a lot about learning from Poker players, so I bought “The Godfather of Poker” from Doyle Brunson, in a remarkably well equipped Poker and Gambling books section of Borders in Boston.
My key area of interest is: Which key learnings from gambling can be transferred to trading?
Let me summarize a few key observations from crawling through this 400 page autobiography.
It is all about bringing your A-Game to the table/trading every day, for every game/trade. Preparation, especially understanding your opponent’s strengths and weaknesses are critical. Don’t just put the money in the centre of what you do, focus on the competition. Gambling and trading are both zero-sum-games and a dollar/pip made in your bankroll/account is a dollar/pip lost for somebody else. Interestingly, very successful Poker players, play highly aggressively. Doyle Brunson summed it up in his key statement: “You gotta give action to get action”. This is counterintuitive for risk/money management strategies but I would argue that after you have done your homework, and given you adhere to your risk/management rules, being too passive doesn’t get you anywhere. A professional poker player would get in earlier, with a more aggressive position when they see the right setup/hand of cards.
Key lines from the book:
– Doyle Brunson, Poker World Champion
- Puggy Pearson, Poker World Champion.
- Benny Binion, Poker Legend and Owner of the Horseshoe Casino in Las Vegas.
– Jack Binion, Horseshoe Casino Las Vegas
GBP/USD, August 13, 7pm UK Time – Longer term analysis
The chart below is an analysis based on the daily cable chart. After GBP/USD failed to break 1.6, we saw, for whatever unlogical reason, strength coming into the USD and a 400 pip pullback to 1.56, each day following a similar scheme. We opened London with a double top, only to give away 100 pips during the session. Same happened during the US sessions, but now we have found stronger support levels. A confluence of recent highs (red line), the up trend-line (yellow) and a 50% Fib line will make it hard for cable to clearly break the 1.54-1.55 level. If the next daily candles don’t support a further down-trend, we will form a bullish divergence on the Oscillating indicator (light blue trend line in the indicator section) and could see daily stochs turn around to the bull side as well.
What I want to say is: Look for Cable longs in the 1.55 (aggressive), 1.54 (conservative area) if the indicators turn around.
The second chart is an analysis of H1 GBPUSD, which already shows a confirmed bullish divergence on the Oscillating indicator and bullish Stochastics in the H1 time frame. Let’s see if the daily is game and finally attack 1.6-1.62. Merwins words and reality are, as usual, long forgotten…
GBP/USD, August 13 7pm UK Time, Daily
GBP/USD, August 13, 7pm UK Time
GBP/USD, August 5, 7am UK Time
We saw a downward correction yesterday after the APD data. Cable never really recovered and rejected 1.59 a few times during Asia. The 7am candle open is the second bullish candle in a row with some potential upward momentum above 1.59.
GBP/USD, August 5, 7am UK Time
GBP/USD, August 4, 10 am UK Time
Cable was stalling at 1.596 a few times through yesterday’s US session and Asia. This morning, we saw another, unsuccessful, attempt at 1.596. A weaker than expected PMI has sent cable down to 1.5890 but it seems to recover a bit. Slowly, the bulls seem to lose control of the situation and if we see a GDP number re-vised to the downside and some more sluggish numbers, we will see the long expected pullback.
GBP/USD, August 4, 10am UK
GBP/USD, August 3, 7am UK Time
After reaching 1.59 yesterday, cable consolidated through the Asia session and is about to find direction after the London open. This has the energy to break 1.6 and is still in an up trend, but we should all stay cautious that a correction is statistically overdue after a multi day increase.
GBP/USD, August 3, 7am UK Time
GBP/USD, August 2, 7am UK Time
Still bullish momentum in cable, but everybody is waiting for a correction. I would prefer to go short into London, but will trade what the charts provide. Critical levels at 1.5753, 1.5821 and 1.5922 to the upside. 1.5603, 1.5585 and 1.5494 to the downside.
GBP/USD, August 2, 7am
GBP/USD, July 30, 7am UK Time
Cable continues to look a bit heavy but regained some strength after Asia with a quick move up to 1.5635, but gave away the gains in a quick down move. Bulls and bears are fighting at Daily Pivot (1.5617), 21 SMA and 200 SMA (M5) to find support. The more lucrative trades should be shorts.
GBP/USD, July 30, 7am
EU/USD, July 29, 1pm UK Time
Ongoing USD weakness lead to a breakout of EU/USD above the 1.3040 level. I tend not to trade EUR/USD today. This has more upside momentum, but I don’t like the risk-reward ratio for longs at this level. Don’t forget that the whole market called parity just a few weeks ago!
EUR/USD, July 29, 1pm UK Time
